Election and the Stakeholder Dilemma, they dont say openly what I think they believe is the right thing to do

    This  article  is  based  on author"s personal impression  about  whether different   stakeholders want  election to be delayed or be held  on due date. 

( 1 ) ARMY  wants  election to be delayed for giving time to complete  electoral / political   reforms ,  full accountability of every one and  to achieve economic stability. The concerns of the  security agencies are  (1 ) the threat of terrorism in Karachi / KP  (2)  fears that nationalist parties in Baluchistan could  get together and after acquiring majority in the provincial Assembly  in first phase   may demand autonomy 

   Army , my personal  impression is that  it wants  election to be delayed but does not want to say so openly. Army will not support any one creating such a  situation but would  be happy  if some one is successful in getting election delayed. 

( 2 ) JUDICIARY  , specially  present  Judges wants  election to be delayed for completing electrole / political  reforms  in line  with the constitution  and giving  time for  full  accountability.  SC must be knowing the background ,specially about the political affiliations’ of the controversial members of the Election Commission . Assuming that SC did not know about  the constitutional violation which has taken place in the appointment of these four members but after Babar Awan ( the then Law Minister ) public statement and after reading Dr.Qadri petition and after reading Mr.Shaheen Sehbai article ,dated 16 February ,SC must be concerned and would  like to correct the situation.  However ,they know  their intervention  in this matter  will delay the election of which  SC does not want to take the blame.   

 Judiciary  would  not  like  to  intervene  in  the  political/ democratic    process but  will be happy if some one  is successful  in creating  situation  which could give SC  time to bring election process in accordance with the constitution.

( 3 ) BUSINESS  COMMUNTY  wants election  to be delayed so that  economy is stabilized  and   to create  an environment free of political compulsion   necessary to restore    Law & order  .

 Business Community  is not hesitating  to  say openly  to delay the  election. In fact  business men   from Karachi  are demanding Army to be called in to  restore Law & order and take action against Mafia who collect bhata ( money to allow them to do business )

( 4 ) VOTERS  belonging  to  middle  and lower  middle class  want  election to be  delayed so  that  corrupt  politicians are screened out so that an honest leadership emerged  out of forthcoming election . Poor voters as usual has no say.

 Voters  belonging to the Middle Classes & Lower Middle Classes  are opely expressing their  desire  for meaningful changes by participating in the Jalsas of Imran Khan and Dr.Qadri or whoever promise to bring change. For  the sake of meaningful change these voters  will  not mind  if the election  is delayed .

( 5 ) AMERICAN & WESTERN POWERS   would not mind  if  the  election  is delayed so that extremism  could be curbed without political interference. American & European also  want smooth  exist from Afghanistan  and want Pakistan to help to negotiate  a peace  accord with  Taliban. American know that it will be difficult for  Pakistanis politicians to  reach a consensus  so they  also want to delay the  election  in Pakistan until their  objective  is achieved .

 However, American & European do not want to openly encourage any undemocratic move such as delayed election in Pakistan which could create  public reactions in their own counties .

( 6 ) WORLD BANK , IMF  and other donor  agencies  would also like election  to be delayed so that  a non-political Government could have time to implement economic reform and take unpopular decision required to  ensure financial discipline.

The world Bank & IMF will  also not openly support  delayed election in Pakistan .

(7 ) POLITICIANS , SPECIALLY  TRADITIONAL POLITICAL ELITES  want  election  to  be  held  without   delay. However, if under  public  pressure generated   by Dr.Qadri, Election Commission starts  disqualifying electable candidates , PPP, ML (N), ML(Q),ANP will resist but  MQM, PTI, JI and Dr.Qadri political party will  not  election to be delayed and will  be happy  to field their candidates .

Pakistanis Trust  in Civilian  Government  has  nosedived  ; US Survey

WASHINGTON, Feb 14: Most Pakistanis have lost faith in their US-allied government and instead trust the military, says a Gallup survey released on Thursday (14 February 2013)

Ninety-two per cent of Pakistanis disapprove of US leadership and 55pc of them fear greater interaction between Muslim and western societies could be harmful.

“The public’s confidence in the Pakistani national government — sometimes seen by Pakistanis as too cosy to the US government — has nosedived, reaching a low of 23 per cent in March and October 2012,” says the survey report.

This is down from 54pc in December 2008, shortly after the beginning of democratically elected President Asif Ali Zardari’s administration.

The trust in civilian government in recent years was the highest in 2006, 58pc, dropped slightly to 54pc in 2008, almost halved to 31pc in 2010 and fell to 23pc in 2012.

Conversely, confidence in the interventionist military — the organisation that has ruled the nation for over half of its post-independence history — climbed to 88pc in October 2012.

The confidence in the military stood at 84pc in 2006, came down to 76pc — the lowest in recent years — by the end of 2008, climbed to 80pc by mid-2012 and peaked to 88pc in 2012.

Gallup, one of the most prominent US surveyors, based these findings on a survey conducted from Sept 30-Oct 16, 2012, in Pakistan. The survey directly followed massive demonstrations against the release of an anti-Muslim film made in the US.

The surveyors predict that the upcoming May elections in Pakistan will be of “seismic importance for the future direction of the country and for US-Pakistan relations”.

The elections will mark the first time in the country’s history that a civilian government peacefully transfers power to a new civilian government.

“Insomuch as the role of the US in Pakistan weighs on the campaign dialogue, the perceived failures of the current regime might translate into the election of political actors that are more hostile or confrontational towards US interests,” the survey warns.

“The degree to which the US-conducted operations within Pakistan have weakened the political position of the existing Pakistani government is an open question,” the surveyors argue, “but the concomitant erosion of approval of US and Pakistani leadership on the Pakistani public’s part is impossible not to notice.”

Instead, Pakistanis put their trust in the military, despite its “meddlesome history in national governing affairs”, the surveyors add.

“What these trends mean for the coming election is unclear, but they suggest that the next few months could be of vital importance for the stability of the Pakistani government and the US-Pakistani relationship.”

The survey pointed out that President Barack Obama’s first term was characterised by strained relations between Pakistan and the US. Consequently, more than nine in 10 Pakistanis (92pc) disapprove of US leadership and 4pc approve, the lowest approval rating ever.

Pakistanis’ approval of the leadership of their ostensible ally, the United States, has historically been quite low. However, perceptions began to change, albeit modestly, through much of President Obama’s first term. As recently as May 2011, 27pc of Pakistanis approved of US leadership, the apex of support.

Noticeably, approval declined after the May 2011 killing of Osama bin Laden, an event that many Pakistanis viewed as a blatant disregard for Pakistani sovereignty.

Concurrently, Pakistanis now more than at any other time in the past three years feel threatened by interaction with the West, according to a May 12-June 6, 2012, survey.

A majority (55pc) say interaction between Muslim and western societies is “more of a threat”, up significantly from 39pc in 2011.

This sharp increase is observed at a time of heightened Pakistani concerns regarding US encroachment on Pakistani sovereignty, including an intensified number of US drone strikes in Pakistan.

Nearly half of the Pakistani population (49pc) is between the ages of 15 and 29. The largely anti-western sentiment among these young Pakistanis suggests that, even as this sizable group ages and begins to have a larger role in Pakistani governance, relations between the US and Pakistan may continue to be fraught with challanges.