This article is based on author"s personal impression about whether different stakeholders want election to be delayed or be held on due date.
( 1 ) ARMY wants
election to be delayed for giving time to complete electoral / political reforms ,
full accountability of every one and
to achieve economic stability. The concerns of the security agencies are (1 ) the threat of terrorism in Karachi / KP (2) fears that nationalist parties in Baluchistan
could get together and after acquiring
majority in the provincial Assembly in
first phase may demand autonomy
Army , my personal impression is that it wants election to be
delayed but does not want to say so openly. Army will not support any one creating
such a situation but would be
happy if some one is successful in getting
election delayed.
( 2 ) JUDICIARY , specially
present Judges wants election to be delayed for completing electrole
/ political reforms in line
with the constitution and giving time for
full accountability. SC must be knowing the background ,specially about
the political affiliations’ of the controversial members of the Election
Commission . Assuming that SC did not know about the constitutional violation which has taken
place in the appointment of these four members but after Babar Awan ( the then
Law Minister ) public statement and after reading Dr.Qadri petition and after
reading Mr.Shaheen Sehbai article ,dated 16 February ,SC must be concerned and
would like to correct the situation. However ,they know their intervention in this matter will delay the election of which SC does not want to take the blame.
Judiciary would
not like to
intervene in the political/ democratic process but
will be happy if some one is
successful in creating situation which could give SC time to bring election process in accordance
with the constitution.
( 3 ) BUSINESS COMMUNTY
wants election to be
delayed so that economy is
stabilized and to create
an environment free of political compulsion necessary to restore Law & order .
Business
Community is not hesitating to say
openly to delay the election. In fact business men
from Karachi are demanding Army
to be called in to restore Law &
order and take action against Mafia who collect bhata ( money to allow them to
do business )
( 4 ) VOTERS belonging
to middle and lower
middle class want election to be delayed so
that corrupt politicians are screened out so that an
honest leadership emerged out of
forthcoming election . Poor voters as usual has no say.
Voters belonging to the Middle Classes & Lower
Middle Classes are opely expressing
their desire for meaningful changes by participating in
the Jalsas of Imran Khan and Dr.Qadri or whoever promise to bring change. For the sake of meaningful change these
voters will not mind
if the election is delayed .
( 5 ) AMERICAN &
WESTERN POWERS would not
mind if
the election is delayed so that extremism could be curbed without political interference.
American & European also want smooth
exist from Afghanistan and want Pakistan to help to negotiate a peace
accord with Taliban. American
know that it will be difficult for
Pakistanis politicians to reach a
consensus so they also want to delay the election
in Pakistan until their
objective is achieved .
However,
American & European do not want to openly encourage any undemocratic move
such as delayed election in Pakistan which could create public reactions in their own counties .
( 6 ) WORLD BANK , IMF and other donor agencies
would also like election to be
delayed so that a non-political Government
could have time to implement economic reform and take unpopular decision
required to ensure financial discipline.
The world Bank & IMF will also not openly support delayed election in Pakistan .
(7 ) POLITICIANS ,
SPECIALLY TRADITIONAL POLITICAL ELITES
want
election to be held
without delay. However, if
under public pressure generated by Dr.Qadri, Election Commission starts disqualifying electable candidates , PPP, ML (N), ML(Q),ANP will resist
but MQM, PTI, JI and Dr.Qadri political
party will not election to be delayed and will be happy to field their
candidates .
Pakistanis Trust
in Civilian Government has
nosedived ; US Survey
WASHINGTON, Feb 14: Most
Pakistanis have lost faith in their US-allied government and instead trust the
military, says a Gallup survey released on Thursday (14 February 2013)
Ninety-two per cent of
Pakistanis disapprove of US leadership and 55pc of them fear greater
interaction between Muslim and western societies could be harmful.
“The public’s confidence in the
Pakistani national government — sometimes seen by Pakistanis as too cosy to the
US government — has nosedived, reaching a low of 23 per cent in March and
October 2012,” says the survey report.
This is down from 54pc in
December 2008, shortly after the beginning of democratically elected President
Asif Ali Zardari’s administration.
The trust in civilian
government in recent years was the highest in 2006, 58pc, dropped slightly to
54pc in 2008, almost halved to 31pc in 2010 and fell to 23pc in 2012.
Conversely, confidence in the
interventionist military — the organisation that has ruled the nation for over
half of its post-independence history — climbed to 88pc in October 2012.
The confidence in the military
stood at 84pc in 2006, came down to 76pc — the lowest in recent years — by the
end of 2008, climbed to 80pc by mid-2012 and peaked to 88pc in 2012.
Gallup, one of the most prominent
US surveyors, based these findings on a survey conducted from Sept 30-Oct 16,
2012, in Pakistan. The survey directly followed massive demonstrations against
the release of an anti-Muslim film made in the US.
The surveyors predict that the
upcoming May elections in Pakistan will be of “seismic importance for the
future direction of the country and for US-Pakistan relations”.
The elections will mark the
first time in the country’s history that a civilian government peacefully
transfers power to a new civilian government.
“Insomuch as the role of the US
in Pakistan weighs on the campaign dialogue, the perceived failures of the
current regime might translate into the election of political actors that are
more hostile or confrontational towards US interests,” the survey warns.
“The degree to which the
US-conducted operations within Pakistan have weakened the political position of
the existing Pakistani government is an open question,” the surveyors argue,
“but the concomitant erosion of approval of US and Pakistani leadership on the
Pakistani public’s part is impossible not to notice.”
Instead, Pakistanis put their
trust in the military, despite its “meddlesome history in national governing
affairs”, the surveyors add.
“What these trends mean for the
coming election is unclear, but they suggest that the next few months could be
of vital importance for the stability of the Pakistani government and the
US-Pakistani relationship.”
The survey pointed out that
President Barack Obama’s first term was characterised by strained relations
between Pakistan and the US. Consequently, more than nine in 10 Pakistanis
(92pc) disapprove of US leadership and 4pc approve, the lowest approval rating
ever.
Pakistanis’ approval of the
leadership of their ostensible ally, the United States, has historically been
quite low. However, perceptions began to change, albeit modestly, through much
of President Obama’s first term. As recently as May 2011, 27pc of Pakistanis
approved of US leadership, the apex of support.
Noticeably, approval declined
after the May 2011 killing of Osama bin Laden, an event that many Pakistanis
viewed as a blatant disregard for Pakistani sovereignty.
Concurrently, Pakistanis now
more than at any other time in the past three years feel threatened by
interaction with the West, according to a May 12-June 6, 2012, survey.
A majority (55pc) say
interaction between Muslim and western societies is “more of a threat”, up
significantly from 39pc in 2011.
This sharp increase is observed
at a time of heightened Pakistani concerns regarding US encroachment on
Pakistani sovereignty, including an intensified number of US drone strikes in
Pakistan.
Nearly half of the Pakistani
population (49pc) is between the ages of 15 and 29. The largely anti-western
sentiment among these young Pakistanis suggests that, even as this sizable
group ages and begins to have a larger role in Pakistani governance, relations
between the US and Pakistan may continue to be fraught with challanges.
